Fire RileTier 1
at DTR Win A Box Tpurnament
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Slimes | 15.4% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Exia | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 59 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 59 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Sniper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nightmare Coil | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enchanted Fete | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| False Step | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backdash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Royal Ordinance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |